You may or may not have a bleed. The licensed regime for post-menopausal utrogestan is taking it days 1-25 with 3 days off during which time if the lining has built up, then there will be a bleed. If it has not built up then you won't bleed. Most doctors however prescribe it for daily use. You might want to start the 1-25 regime at first to see how you get on? Some bleeding or spotting is expected within the first 6 months of any HRT so changing to the new regime may cause a bit of this anyway. All the best with it!
Hurdity x