Hello Rosepetal73,
There's no definitive answer to why ERT doesn't cause an increase in breast cancer, there are not enough long term studies and clinical trials to strongly support this evidence, some studies show a slight increase while others show a slight decrease, so the subject is still under scrutiny.
Oestrogen and progesterone have different roles depending on the target cell type. Their action on breast cells depends on the presence of hormonal receptors (both for oestrogen and progesterone), and that can vary widely amongst women. Most studies show the progestogen in combined HRT has been associated with increased BC risk, but the subject is also still under scrutiny.
Regarding estradiol gel and micronised progesterone, I'm not aware of clinical trials or long term studies. The ones available are primarily observational. Micronised progesterone has been studied primarily for gestation purpose.
That's why leaflets of HRT products still state the same warnings, despite menopause medical societies all around the world advocate the change of product labeling for low dose vaginal oestrogen.
Conolly X